It is known that rice stocks have recently been interested in the context of “favorable weather”. In particular, the price of rice is increasing because India restricts rice exports. India exports rice to more than 150 countries and contributes about 36.7% of the global rice trade, so any drop in export volume will put pressure on rice prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, the global rice supply still faces risks due to severe weather conditions in major exporting countries, as noted in the latest report of VNDirect Securities (VND).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Specifically, recent extreme weather in Asia’s top rice exporting countries, which account for about 90% of world rice production, is likely to reduce yields and output this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China alone, the world’s largest rice consumer, has suffered severe drought in seven provinces, causing the country’s rice production to be reduced and is expected to increase rice imports to a record level. is about 6 million tons in crop year 2022\/2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the US Department of Agriculture, global inventories have fallen to a 4-year low when forecasting the inventory\/consumption ratio for the period 2022-2023 (inventory-to-consumption ratio) at just 34 .4% (compared to the average of 36.6% for the period 2018-2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, VND sees increasing demand. China is expected to increase rice imports to a record 6 million tons in 2022\/2023 due to reduced yields. Not to mention, the ban on food exports including wheat and sugar from India, palm oil from Indonesia and other food importers like the Philippines are trying to increase their inventories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, VND believes that rice may be under pressure to increase prices in the near future. And in that, Vietnam is in a good position to catch the rising price of rice. The Thai government is also looking for solutions to support farmers in the context of high input prices, including a strategy of shaking hands with major rice exporting countries (including Vietnam) to raise prices. sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rice prices in Vietnam and Thailand (USD\/ton)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Source: Synthesized VND.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Vietnam is the world’s third largest rice exporter, after India and Thailand, with 7.8% of global trade; and is the largest exporter to China with 24.5% market share. Indian rice prices are in a weaker competitive position due to higher tariffs, which in turn pushes buyers to shift to Thai and Vietnamese rice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the first eight months of 2022, Vietnam’s rice export value and output reached 2.3 billion USD respectively – up 9.9% over the same period and 4.8 million tons – up 20.7%. China is Vietnam’s second largest rice export market, after the Philippines, accounting for 12% of total rice exports in the first eight months of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recently, the Prime Minister has directed the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to develop a project on sustainable production of 1 million hectares of high-quality specialized rice, reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the Mekong Delta region. Mekong Delta). Accordingly, in order to improve the quality of exported rice to meet international standards, the Market-oriented Smallholder Rice Value Chain (MSVC) project was born, under the public-private partnership between Olam Company. Agri, the German Organization for International Cooperation (GIZ) and the Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/cafefcdn.com\/203337114487263232\/2022\/9\/26\/photo-3-16641738220001697029396.png\" "\\"The")
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