Vietnam’s stock market usually falls immediately when interest rates rise, but will recover in the 3rd month with bottom-fishing cash flow entering.

Assessing the impact on Vietnam’s stock market, BSC historical statistics said that when the State Bank announced an increase in operating interest rates, the Vietnamese stock market often tended to decrease immediately compared to the time before the announcement. Father.

After the period of world economic stimulus due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the growth trend of commodity prices and global inflation led many World Central Banks to raise interest rates for the whole period of 2021- 2022. In the newly updated report, BSC Securities assessed that this situation is putting pressure on inflation and interest rates of the State Bank.

In the general context, the growth rate of global inflation is showing signs of slowing down. The BCOM-Index tended to peak in June and decline from 36.6% to 17% in September 2022. However, freight rates are still increasing due to the economic blockade in China and the rise in oil prices, putting pressure on transport supply. Movements in raw material prices tend to be more positive.

Currently, the inflation momentum in all countries has shown signs of peaking in July except the Eurozone. This could reduce the pressure of global inflation. Except for Russia and China, which are in the process of loosening monetary policy, most other countries are accelerating the process of tightening inflation. In which, the United States and the Philippines are the two countries with the fastest growth rates. According to BSC, the tightening situation of the US is putting quite strong pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate when the investment cash flow is sheltering in the USD.

For the State Bank of Vietnam, our country’s monetary policy is in a relaxed state to stimulate demand for economic growth. However, BSC believes that this policy is under pressure from 3 factors. The first is the strong upward pressure from the exchange rate. The free USD/VND exchange rate started to tend to increase strongly in the second quarter of 2022 when the FED decided to tighten the balance sheet and raise interest rates. This trend has put strong pressure on the VND since then. Since the beginning of the year, the VND/USD exchange rate has depreciated by about 3.7% and foreign exchange reserves have been sold about 20 billion USD to 90 billion USD. The bright spot is that factors such as trade surplus of 5.49 billion USD and disbursed FDI of 12.8 billion USD are partly helping to limit the increase of the exchange rate since the beginning of the year.

The second is the increasing pressure of Vietnam’s inflation. Compared to other countries, inflation in Vietnam is quite low and below the government target of 4%. However, the growth rate of core inflation is increasing quite rapidly compared to the whole period of the last 5 years, showing a worrying factor about the widespread increase in commodity prices. The increase in prices mainly came from the service sector, the recovery of consumer demand led to an increase in service prices, showing that inflation is increasing in demand-pull situation. According to BSC, this is the reason why the State Bank of Vietnam accepts to raise interest rates when consumer demand is showing signs of strong growth.

However, Vietnam’s economic growth rate is still in a positive state, as shown by the cumulative growth rate of retail consumption of goods and services reaching 19.3% over the same period and an index of 19.3% over the same period last year. manufacturing industry increased by 9.4% over the same period.

Assessing the impact on Vietnam’s stock market, BSC made statistics of past reactions of VN-Index to the announcement of an increase in operating interest rates and said that when the State Bank announced an increase in operating interest rates, the stock market would Vietnam often tends to decrease immediately compared to the time before the announcement. That is the short-term reaction of the market to negative information. However, by the 3rd month, the market has recovered again after the negative information has been completely reflected and the bottom-fishing money flows started to appear., except for two periods when the market dropped very deeply, 2008 and 2011 due to the impact of the 2008 global recession, along with the increase in bad debts of banks and black credit failure, creating a dark point. concerns in the financial picture of Vietnam in 2011. Inflation accompanied by recession had a heavy impact on the stock market at that time.

According to BSC, the increase in the operating interest rate by the State Bank of Vietnam has a negative impact on the trend of the VN-Index because investors’ expectations on business results of production and business enterprises are reduced. Because, in the context of rising interest rates, profits may decrease when borrowing costs increase as well as the demand for borrowing to implement more investment projects, financial activities and M&A deals are more limited. . In addition, consumers will spend less when lending rates rise and thereby reduce the sales of businesses.

However, BSC still expressed an optimistic view, as Vietnam’s macro factors are still maintaining a positive growth momentum. Real GDP growth in the quarter increased to 7.7% year-on-year in 2021 and much higher than the 5.03% growth in the first quarter of 2022. In addition, Vietnam’s inflation is still below the target threshold, showing that at the moment the import of inflation is not significant, the pressure of the SBV has to participate in the race to tighten monetary policy together with the central banks. the rest of the world is not so heavy. However, BSC notes that world commodity prices, although showing signs of peaking, are still at a high level, along with global economic growth, which is expected to continue to decline, will have negative effects. to the economies of large open countries like Vietnam.

Regarding the group of industries that benefited from the decision to increase operating interest rates, BSC pointed out three groups of industries including:

(1) sectors whose prices have been adjusted deeply enough, usually have low P/E and will not be affected by the interest rate increase by unadjusted stocks;

(2) is a group of businesses with low debt, thereby saving interest expenses in the period of high interest rates;

Finally, there are (3) businesses that have a lot of cash, from which they will benefit from sending excess cash to bank savings to enjoy high interest rates.

Phuong Linh/Market Lifestyle