Agriseco: The market in February entered a period of sideways accumulation and divergence among stock groups

Agriseco Research recommends that investors can choose to be stocks of leading enterprises with healthy financials, good potential for Q1 business results, or growth stories in the coming period and is currently priced at a low valuation. expensive.

NEWS

• Foreign investors continued to be net buyers during a strong drop in the market, focusing on strongly gathering one banking stock
• Securities trading company boosted net selling of nearly 550 billion dong on the day the market fell deeply
• Foreign investors continued their net buying of more than 400 billion dong in the market’s reversal session and strongly disbursed STB

The stock market started the new year favorably with an increase of about 10% in January. This increase was supported by foreign cash flow and self-trading with a net buying value of VND4,200 billion. The US Federal Reserve (FED) has recently continued to raise interest rates, but with an increase of only 0.25%, it has strengthened expectations that the FED will soon end the interest rate raising cycle and increase optimism about the economy. the possibility of a “soft landing” of the US economy.

In the newly updated report, Agribank Securities (Agriseco) assessed the profit data of the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2022, which showed a clear weakening in business activities of enterprises. In the first quarter of 2023, maintaining profit growth compared to the same period in 2022 will be a challenge due to the high base level, and at the same time the impact of high capital costs will gradually permeate. However, in terms of valuation, the P/E of about 12 times VN-Index is still quite attractive and the demand is still supported by foreign cash flow.

The market is forecasted to enter a period of sideways accumulation and differentiation among stock groups. Particularly in February 2023, Agriseco Research recommends that investors can choose to be stocks of leading enterprises in the industry, with healthy finances, potential for good Q1 business results or growth stories in the coming period. and are priced inexpensively.

For Binh Minh Plastic Joint Stock Company (stock code: BMP), the company recorded positive Q4 business results when EAT reached VND 248 billion, more than 2 times higher than the same period last year thanks to a 130% increase in sales volume, average selling price also increased by nearly 25% while input costs fell sharply.. Agriseco expects NPAT to continue to grow in the coming quarters because PVC resin prices are still in a downtrend and are at 30% lower than compared to the previous quarter. with the same period. This will help BMP continue to record positive results in the first quarter of 2023 when this is the main input material for plastic production (accounting for about 70%).

Not only that, BMP has an advantage in the supply of input materials when the major foreign shareholder, SCG Group, owns the Long So Petrochemical Complex, which is expected to come into operation in 2023, capable of supplying raw materials for the country. producing PVC plastic beads, helping Binh Minh Plastic enjoy many price incentives. BMP also has good financial health, stable cash flow and attractive dividend yield. Agriseco Research forecasts that the company will continue to maintain a cash dividend policy of about 50%-70% for 2023, corresponding to a dividend yield of about 10%.

At FPT Joint Stock Company (stock code: FPT), Agriseco expects business results in 2023 to maintain a 2-digit growth momentum, specifically growing about 18% over the same period in revenue and PBT mainly thanks to the segment. Software exports increased in Japan and the US markets (20 – 30%), along with the digital conversion segment increased by 30%. Digital transformation contracts showed positive signs in the first month of 2023 when signing digital transformation cooperation for businesses such as Stavian, Gas South. Besides, the telecommunications segment remained stable with an increase of 11% thanks to stable internet subscriptions and contributions from the PayTV and Datacenter segments.

In particular, FPT is the leading technology stock with the maximum foreign ownership ratio for many years. This is also a stable stock with an average growth rate of 16% per year in the last 5 years. At the same time, the Beta coefficient is around 0.6 – 0.7 times, showing a good resistance to market fluctuations. Financially, FPT maintains a regular ratio of cash and stock dividend payments, a healthy financial situation, a net cash ratio of more than VND 20,000 billion, and a decrease in debt ratio from 0.94 to 0.49. time. A healthy financial position helps reduce exposure to market fluctuations.

Meanwhile, Gemadept Joint Stock Company (stock code: GMD) is expected to record a sudden profit from divesting capital from Nam Hai Dinh Vu port in 2023. Agriseco forecasts a transfer value of about VND 2,000 – 2,500 billion, due to Therefore, this port sale is expected to help support GMD’s profit in the context that 2023 is expected to be difficult, and at the same time increase investment resources in future projects.

The enterprise plans to deploy Gemalink port phase 2 in 2023 and may put the project into operation in the period 2024 – 2025. This project is expected to help increase the capacity of the enterprise to double the current capacity, to 3 million TEUs. Besides, Nam Dinh Vu Port phase 2 is also expected to achieve high performance after operation, thanks to receiving a large number of passengers after transferring Nam Hai Dinh Vu port. Gemadept is confident of being able to achieve high performance and even be profitable in the first year of operation. If favorable, Nam Dinh Vu port phase 3 can be deployed after phase 2 to help Nam Dinh Vu become the largest port in the North.

For PetroVietnam Electricity Corporation (stock code: POW), Agriseco Research believes that weather conditions will be favorable for the growth of mobilized output and electricity generation prices in 2023. Forecasts agree that The probability of an Elnino appearance from mid-2023 is high, with a significant decrease in rainfall. As a result, the generation capacity from hydroelectricity will decrease and the price of electricity generation is forecasted to increase over the same period. With the main project portfolio structure of coal and gas thermal power, POW plans to increase output and revenue by 10% in 2023, reaching 15.6 million kWh and 30.3 trillion dong, respectively.

In addition, the re-operation of unit 1 of Vung Ang 1 project is expected in March, which is the peak of electricity consumption in the North. Besides, the 30% drop in coal price in January will also help factories that use imported coal to reduce the pressure of shortage of raw materials, and at the same time improve their competitiveness and gross profit margin. Vung Ang machine. Regarding POW stock, Agriseco believes that the current valuation is cheap compared to the company’s potential, P/B is currently at 0.8x, relatively low compared to the 5-year average (above 1.1x) and opportunity to increase deposit volume and profit in 2023.

After a prosperous last quarter of the banking industry, Agriseco selected Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank (stock code: STB)This is an investment opportunity for February. Accordingly, the debt settlement process at VAMC is expected to be completed soon, which will help the bank reduce the pressure of provisioning for this account in the following years. .In 2022, STB has made provision for VAMC bonds up to VND8,573 billion, making VAMC’s net debt balance at the end of the year only about VND6,919 billion, down sharply from about VND41 trillion (at the end of the first quarter of this year). 2018). At the same time, STB’s interest and receivables receivables dropped sharply, to VND5,079 billion (- 49%) by the end of 2022. This will help the bank no longer have to record deductions from interest income in the years. later, boosting NIM, increasing net interest income. In particular, according to statistics, from the beginning of 2023 until now, STB has been the strongest net bought banking stock by foreign investors with a value of over 500 billion dong. This will help create room for the stock price increase in the coming time.

Phuong Linh/Market Lifestyle