Expert: Lower interest rates will trigger cash flow into securities, three groups of stocks with the most “sensitive” will rebound the most

With the SBV continuing to lower interest rates, experts believe that the stock market can continue to extend its uptrend in the short term.

On the evening of March 31, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) decided from April 3 to reduce interest rates from 0.3 to 0.5% per year. This is the second time in a month that operating interest rates have fallen. This decision is a positive signal for commercial banks to continue reducing deposit rates and lending rates at high levels.

Specifically, (1) Reduce 0.5%/year for refinancing interest rate; (2) Reduce by 0.5%/year the maximum interest rate for deposits in VND with no term and term of less than 1 month and term from 1 to less than 6 months; (3) Reduce by 0.5%/year of ceiling interest rate short-term loans in VND for priority sectors; (4) Reduced interest rates by 0.3%/year for deposits in VND at the State Bank.

SBV may continue to reduce operating interest rates

According to the analysis of Mr. Huynh Minh Tuan – Founder of FIDT , in the context of inflation, although increasing but tends to slow down, economic growth still faces many difficulties, causing us to “react from afar”, reducing interest rates. SBV’s interest rate is a flexible solution, suitable for the current economic context.

Supply of cash flow to the market depends on two factors: monetary policy and fiscal policy. However, with fiscal policy, public investment disbursement, which is expected to be a tool to regulate cash flow and boost the economy, has yet to meet expectations in Q1.

Therefore, monetary policy is being paid more attention in this period. With a relatively low economic growth compared to many years, experts believe that it is necessary to release cheaper and more reasonable capital to the market.

Although this trend is reversed when many central banks around the world still operate anchor interest rates at high levels, experts say that this is not too worrisome. The Fed forecasts that there is only one interest rate increase left, in the worst case, a 0.5% increase will not affect Vietnam much.

Because the exchange rate no longer exerts great pressure when the USD Index cools down from 115 to 102. Moreover, Vietnam’s trade deficit is low because some FDI enterprises decline, affecting the demand for foreign currency. Therefore, the double effect of helping foreign exchange reserves and USD cash flow into Vietnam is increasing, not decreasing.

According to Mr. Tuan’s forecast, the State Bank may continue to reduce the operating interest rate and ceiling deposit by 1-2 times in the coming months.

Securities will respond positively in the short term

Talking specifically about Vietnamese securities, Mr. Tuan said that the recent increase in the market was due to the response to the Government’s policies. A series of market-supporting solutions such as Decree 08 and Draft Amendment 16 have had a positive impact on investor sentiment.

If there is no news of interest rate reduction at the end of the week, the probability of a decrease next week is very large. However, with the SBV continuing to lower interest rates, the stock market may continue to extend its rally in the short term.

In fact, the loosening monetary policy needs time to penetrate from 6-9 months. Cash flow will gradually flow into the stock market, stocks with high liquidity will benefit in the short term.

“When we tightened policy from last year, stocks fell sharply from the top. Interest rates continuously cooled down will be a catalyst to help the stock market excited in the short term. The industries that are sensitive to cash flow are banking – securities – real estate, which will outperform the market , “ said Mr. Huynh Minh Tuan.

However, the expert still emphasized that this trend is still mainly psychological in nature. Because the reports of the coming quarters of these groups have not had much improvement, for example, the group of banks with bad debts in real estate increased; Margin lending securities decreased, proprietary trading decreased; Real estate still faces a lot of pressure related to bond maturity, the real market only “warms up” in some segments of townhouses and offices. Experts believe that of the three groups, securities stocks have more opportunities to prosper because of the reversal of proprietary trading in this quarter when the market is also in the recovery phase since the beginning of the year.

At this time of interest rate decline, experts believe that there are investment opportunities and speculation with securities. But when the economy is in a state of exhaustion and many world risks have not yet been fully absorbed, the “quick strike” strategy is still a priority. If investing in the long-term school, the portfolio is extremely important, investors need to separate a lot of things related to debt risk, business models, … of businesses.

Ha Anh/Market life